While it is straightforward to communicate the most likely outcome, it is much more problematic to incorporate all of the available information contained within a probabilistic forecast. The nature of the long-range forecast is such that output is often expressed in terms of the probabilities of all possible outcomes.
One of the major challenges facing the energy meteorologist is understanding and communicating the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. This knowledge, in combination with the visualization of the dynamical model output in terms of climate indices, can enable the energy meteorologist to anticipate the evolution of the climate indices, and thus gain new insight into the long-range forecast. Data integrity can also be a major issue with different sources likely to be utilizing different calibration methodologies, if any are used at all, and various climatological baselines.Įxample analog analysis: weak La Niña and negative QBO in wintertimeīy interrogating the effects of the various climate indices at different times of the year with the index analog system, the energy meteorologist can quickly build their knowledge, understanding, and confidence as to how influential the various indices will be in the coming season. That data needs to be analyzed, applied to the market of interest, and then communicated which is why efficient access to relevant, accurate, and reliable forecast data can make all the difference.įor example, collecting and comparing long-range dynamical forecast data from various sources can become significantly time-consuming. The energy meteorologist is confronted with huge volumes of new data on a daily basis. Save time with WCS’s feed of reliable meteorological data With this in mind, the World Climate Service has developed an innovative suite of products and tools which equips today’s energy meteorologist with an invaluable meteorological resource, freeing up valuable time to allow them to focus on what really matters.
communicating real-time dynamical model updates.
Huge advances in long-range forecasting over the last decade mean that energy meteorologists are busier than ever (see here and here) attending to a wealth of meteorological data, whether it be: Energy meteorologists are busier than everĮnergy traders around the world rely on their energy meteorologists to keep them on top of the weather and ahead of the market.
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